Application of the method of territorial long-term forecasts to determine the maximum water discharge rates under the conditions of spring flood 2022-2023 formation across the Desna basin

Despite the conditions of both climate change and long-term trend to decrease hydrological characteristics Ukrainian rivers' spring flood that was established by many authors, formation high-water river floods accompanied rising water levels release floodplains still remains probable.
 Thus, according data Hydrometeorological Center (UkrHMC) State Emergency Service Ukraine (web: www.meteo.gov.ua), hydrometeorological snowmelt rain runoff during autumn-winter periods 2022-2023 across basins Dnipro Desna rivers their tributaries were characterized as those having a complex nature. This led rise these with flooding floodplains, disruption transport connections, well populated areas in Kyiv, Chernihiv other regions.
 The purpose this study is issues related determination natural factors lead extreme large-scale floods, forecasting maximum River basin.
 To ensure operational support assessment size basin left Middle Dnieper, research used method territorial forecasts runoff. takes into account which, when combined annually, different sizes.
 results forecast for discharge rates retrieved from computer "SEYM" show satisfactory statistical estimates provided high pre-flood content recession winter considered. time varied 20-30 days small two months Seim themselves.
 Application allows spatial monitoring conducted using methodology any certain territory, including relation which there are no observations runoff.
 An early warning about dangerous level winter-spring can significantly reduce scale negative consequences achievement socio-economic environmental effects.